Measure theoretic probability 2010-2011
(ST406028)

Aim

To provide an introduction in the basic notions and results of measure theory and how these are used in probability theory.

Contents

During the course the measure theoretic foundations of probability theory will be treated. Key words for the course are: limit theorems for Lebesgue integrals, product measures, random variables, distributions of random variables, convergence in probability, weak convergence, uniform integrability, conditional expectation, martingales in discrete time, convergence theorems for martingales, characteristic functions, central limit theorems. The course provides the necessary background for follow up courses like Stochastic Processes and Stochastic Integration, where in particular convergence theorems for martingales and characteristic functions are frequently used.

Prerequisites

Knowledge at the level of for instance Richard T. Durrett, The Essentials of Probability and the first seven chapters of Walter Rudin, Principles of Mathematical Analysis.

Literature

A set of lecture notes will be used. The numbering in the schedule below refers to the slightly different numbering in an older version of the lecture notes.

People

Lectures by Peter Spreij, assisted by Florian Simatos

Schedule and location

Fall semester, Wednesdays 10.15-13.00. September 8, 15: room G3.02, September 22: C1.112, September 29: C1.110, October 6 until November 17: Turing room (Z.011) at CWI, October 27: no lectures, November 24: Doelenzaal in the University Library, Singel 421 - 427, 1012WP Amsterdam (map), December 1: C1.112 (11:15-13:00!), December 8 (last lecture): Turing room. Locations: UvA, Science Park 904 and CWI, Science Park 123; see the map of Science Park and the travel directions. The course will start on September 8. Changes in the schedule will appear here.

Reimbursement of travel costs

Students who are registered in a master program in Mathematics at one of the Dutch universities can claim their travel expenses, see the rules.

Exams

Written exam and homework assignments. The written exam will take place on 12 January 2011, 13:00-16:00, in room D0.08, UvA, Oude Manhuispoort 4-6, 1012CN Amsterdam (map).
Let H be the average grade for your homework, E your grade for the written exam. Your final grade will be computed as F=max{E,(4H+6E)/10} and then rounded to the nearest integer.
The written exam will be partly on theory and partly consist of ordinary exercises. You have to know some results and their proofs(!) by heart. At least one of them will return as a question in the exam. These results are Lemma 1.13, Theorem 4.11, Theorem 7.15 (look at the modified version in the updated lecture notes!) , Theorem 10.10, Proposition 12.9 (numbering as in the lecture notes at the beginning of the course). Look at the the exam of 14 January 2009 for an impression. Note that the material you have to study for the exam has changed, so don't consider the old exam as an ideal example of what you can expect!

Here are the final results, computed as the F in the above formula.

Evaluation

At the end of the course you will be asked to evaluate it by filling in a questionnaire. Alternatively, you can also do this online.

Programme
(weekly updated, last modified: )

1
Class: Most of Chapter 1
Homework: Make Exercises 1.5 (read Section 1.3), 1.6, 1.9
2
Class: Chapter 3 up to Lemma 3.13 (without the proof)
Homework: Make Exercises 3.1, 3.3, 3.5, read the proof of Lemma 3.13 and have a quick look at Theorem 3.15
3
Class: Sections 4.1, 4.2 up to Theorem 4.18
Homework: Make Exercises 4.2, 4.4, 4.6 and read parts of the lecture notes that I skipped (like linearity of the integral)
4
Class: Sections 4.4, 4.5, 4.6 up to Theorem 4.34 and an intro to Chapter 5
Homework: Read section 4.3 and make Exercises 4.9, 4.10, 4.11
5
Class: Sections 5.1, 5.2, and a bit of 6.3, 6.4
Homework: Look at Proposition 6.4 (prove it for yourself, if you like), make Exercises 5.2, 5.7, 6.5 (the sentence in parentheses is just a remark)
6
Class: Sections 6.5, 8.1 up to Theorem 8.6 and Theorem 8.7(i)
Homework: Make Exercises 6.9, 8.1, 8.2
7
Class: Remainder of Section 8.1, most of Sections 9.1, 9.2, 10.1
Homework: Make Exercises 9.3, 9.4, 9.5 and read Proposition 7.3
8
Class: Sections 7.2, 10.2, Proposition 10.21
Homework: Make Exercises 10.4, 10.5, 10.7
9
Class: Section 10.3, Theorem 10.23, Section 11.1 up to Proposition 11.3
Homework: Make Exercises 10.8, 10.12, 10.13 The assumptions of Exercise 10.12 were incomplete. The original version of the lecture notes now contains the corrected exercise. In Exercise 10.13: $M_n=\prod_{k=1}^n Z_k$ (the product $Z_1\cdots Z_n$). I am terribly sorry!
10
Class: Section 11.1 from Theorem 11.4 up to Proposition 11.10 (Theorem 11.6 skipped), Section 12.1 up to Proposition 12.2
Homework: Make Exercises 11.1, 11.4, 11.9
11
Class: Remainder of Section 12.1, Section 12.2, Lemma 12.13 briefly
Homework: Make Exercises 12.2, 12.4 (in 12.4a you are allowed to differentiate under the integral), 12.5. Exercise 12.2(b) was not consistently formulated and has caused some confusion. Use the new version (last update 27 Nov, 16:15). You are allowed to use the result of exercise 5.6 (which is not difficult to prove), where you have to read in (a) and (b) $\mu$ as $\mu_Y$.
12
Class: Sections 11.2 and 12.3
Homework: Make Exercises 11.10, 12.7 (you are allowed to use the results of Exercise 12.6 without proving them, but it will do no harm if you give it a try for yourself), 12.8 (in (c) you read $\mathbb{P}U_{nj}$ as the expectation of $U_{nj}$ and you may assume $0 < p_n < 1$).
13
Class: Survey of Chapter 13
Homework: You can make Exercises 13.1, 13.5, 13.6, if you are interested. This assignment will not be graded!




Links

Korteweg-de Vries Institute for Mathematics
Master Stochastics and Financial Mathematics
Dutch Master Program in Mathematics .